Analysis of natural migration of the population.

The components vital, as is known, are the demographic processes such as fertility, mortality, marriage and divorce. These processes are involved in the demographic reproduction of the population.

The direct impact on the renewal of human generations have a first and second of the above processes, the balance of which determines a positive or negative direction of the demographic development.

The mortality rate in the respective dictionary is defined as “the process of reducing the population as a result of the death of individuals or as a” generation of the extinction process consisting of a mass of individual deaths, advancing at different ages. ”

Of the underlying unity of fertility, which is the process of childbirth in a certain set of people, by analogy with the other processes of natural and mechanical (migration), population movement is a specific demographic event – the birth of a child.

The mortality rate is one of the indicators of economic and social well-being of society. Especially in this respect informative private mortality, fixing it in different age groups and causes of death.

Background course work that is currently in Kazakhstan there is a decrease in the population of the country as a whole, including reducing the number of working-age population that can contain state and disabled population. This leads to a complex, requiring urgent solutions, social problems such as a decrease in the birth rate, an aging population, large-scale migration of labor, and so on. N.

The purpose of the course work is to analyze the natural movement of the population.

Objectives of the course work:

– To give the concept of vital;

– Describe the effect of changing the demographic potential of the quality of life and socio-economic status of the population;

– Describe the trends in the natural movement of the population of Kazakhstan;

– To consider the demographic policy as a method for increasing the reproduction of the population.

  1. Basic aspects vital

1.1 The concept of vital

demographic population movement

The natural movement of the population – is a constant renewal of generations as a result of births and deaths. The term was introduced in the 2nd floor. 19. in the German statistics, along with the “mechanical movement” (migration).

The natural movement of the population is measured by indicators of fertility, mortality and natural increase (decrease) of the population, ie. E. The difference between the number of births and deaths for a certain period. Usually these figures are calculated for the year, calculated per 1000 people. (This value is called ppm), at least in percentage terms.

As the magnitude of fertility, mortality and natural growth, calculated relative to the entire population affected by the age structure of the population (eg., The mortality rate is higher for a larger proportion of the elderly), the indicators are often calculated for individual age groups. Although the birth rate and mortality biological phenomena, but they are influenced not only the natural but also the social and economic living conditions of the people, as well as historical traditions. Therefore, with the development of human society have changed the value of fertility and mortality and their ratio, which determines the type of reproduction of the population. It is believed that in the history of mankind have changed each other three types; the replacement of one type to another called the demographic transition.

The first (the archetype) high mortality is almost entirely compensated for the high birth rate and natural growth rate was extremely low (primitive society). In the second type (conventional) natural population growth increased by reducing mortality and maintaining a high level of fertility (the subsequent periods, including early capitalism). The third type of (modern, rational) is characterized by low natural increase as a result of a low mortality rate (due to health achievements) and the low birth rate (corresponding to the modern way of life and system of values). The transition to this type of reproduction is uneven in different groups of countries. In developed countries it is completed (the birth rate 1.2-1.5% 0.7-1.2% mortality, natural growth of 0.1-0.7%), in some of them there is a demographic crisis, in which the natural increase replaced diminution, there is depopulation. Developing countries are at different stages of demographic transition: in many of them remained high birth rate (2-5%) while drastically reduce mortality rates (0.5-2%), resulting in a population explosion when the natural increase is 4%. This uneven demographic transition is causing a sharp increase in the proportion of people in Asia, Africa and Latin America in the world’s population. Kazakhstan is currently in a state of demographic crisis – a natural decline of 0.6%, but the natural movement of population figures vary greatly by region; like different countries, Russian regions are at different stages of demographic transition.

1.2 Effect of changing the demographic potential of the quality of life and socio-economic situation of the population

At the end of the XX century it was designated a disturbing trend of deepening division of the world into rich and poor countries that sharply differentiate the quality of life of their populations.

Move the former socialist countries to a market economy, structural imbalances, the collapse of economic ties with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia inevitably caused deep transformational economic crisis that threw many of these countries in terms of GDP per capita to the level of backwardness of developing countries.

Recently carried out projections for the period up to 2015 were based on a detailed analysis of the last five years of the past century trends. They suggest a slight turn of the situation. Gradually, step by step, out of the crisis of the country with economies in transition on the path of market development. In this context, in our view, already it loses its meaning and the very isolation of these countries as a separate category.

There have been radical changes in the conglomerate in Asia, Africa and Latin America, where about 4/5 of the world’s population. As a result of the deepening differences in the level and pace of socio-economic transformation itself is a community united by the notion of “developing countries”, has become blurred.

In the forecast period split in their development efforts, and the community itself, as a conceptual category, will disappear. According to the forecast of 56 countries in the world in 2015 will have a per capita income of less than 5 thousand. Dollars. They will live almost 3 billion. Population (41% of the total population). Hunger and glaring poverty, especially against the background of the advanced countries livelihood will be a heavy negative background of the global economic development of the beginning of the XXI century.

Before the developed and rich countries, defining the parameters of global development, will face the problem more acute creating conditions for sustainable development in the poorest countries. By this they will push not only humanitarian considerations. Fear of uncontrolled emigration from these countries, increase in drug trafficking and terrorism in them, is likely to force the rich countries to the development and implementation of economic development programs of poor countries. But analyze their feasibility would be naive to now.

By 2015, increase the number of countries with a per capita income of 5 to 14 thousand dollars, to ensure sustainable growth based on industrialization and the development of adequate services.. (With 39 – in 2000 to 43 – in 2015). Increase the number of countries that have embarked on the path of post-industrial development (with a per capita income of GDP by 14 to 20 thousand. Dollars.). Among them will be the Republic of Kazakhstan. The main impetus to the world of the global economy will continue to ask the rich countries of post-industrial development (with the level of per capita income of 20 thousand. USD. And above). Their number will increase to 38. They will be concentrated more than half of world GDP.

Another indicator of poverty is multidimensional human poverty index. It combines in a single composite index of indicators reflecting the shortcomings in four key aspects of human life: life expectancy and health, knowledge, economic support and participation in public life. These aspects of deprivation are the same in both developing and industrialized countries. The only difference indicators used to measure them, reflecting both the real situation in these countries, and the lack of data.

To measure human poverty in developing countries use the HPI-1. Deprivation in the aspect of life expectancy and health status determined by the percentage of the population, life expectancy at birth today is not up to 40 years in prison in the aspect of knowledge – literacy rate among adults, and deprivation in the aspect of economic security – the percentage of people without access to health care and safe water and the percentage of children under 5 years old suffering from a lack of weight.

All this leads to the conclusion that the main criterion for distinction between clearly differentiated groups of industrially developed and developing countries in the world stands today, the level of poverty in the past, as the main obstacle in the way of the total increase of the quality of life of their population, without overcoming this phenomenon is impossible to talk about whatever it any rapprochement in the economic development of the selected groups. A study in the research allows us to conclude that at the turn of XX and XXI centuries established is a clear differentiation of the world countries of the two groups conditionally allocated. This industrialized countries, of which there are 46 states in the United Nations economic development. They account for about four-fifths of the total world GDP. But demographically leaders are more than 150 developing countries, on the territory of which more than two-thirds of the world’s population.

At the same time, despite the presence of so-called category of countries in transition stage of development (mainly post-Soviet and post-socialist European and Asian countries), conducted in the analysis allows us to conclude that both the key macroeconomic and demographic parameters can all be attributed to either categories developed or developing countries. This characteristic of the turn of the century is diametrically opposite tendencies of socio-economic and demographic development of both groups. So almost most of the developed countries of the world, in spite of sustained economic growth, demographically slow down its development, complicated by structural and social disparities within the population of each of them. In contrast, the developing countries, in spite of a low rate of socio-economic development, either in the dynamic development, but not so intense that the characteristic of the first group of states, significantly behind GDP parameters, although the lead in the demographic dynamics.

As a result, the current situation leads to increased migratory activity of the population of most countries and regions of the world, motivated by the desire to change the place of residence, providing a higher standard of living and the corresponding quality of life, available to the vast majority of people in developed countries.

Thus, there is a disproportion in the distribution of human resources and productive forces of the countries and regions of the world. All this, in turn, leads to a perceived need of a number of both developed and developing countries to develop and systematically implement a national demographic and migration policies.

To date, at state level, developed and supported emigration policy in the 81 States, of which 53 countries have promoted the return of migrants to their home territory after receiving the temporarily absent citizens as additional earnings, and higher professional qualifications, all of which ensures a general rise in the social and economic and demographic level of their development in the foreseeable future.

However, such an important aspect as the integration of foreigners into the new society is encouraged at the state policy level, not always and not in all countries. We can say that today, only 75 of the 192 countries of the world community at the state level, a policy of integration of migrants with the local population. As a rule, it is the country’s traditional democracy and the least developed group of developing countries. The last direct interest in compensation for the natural outflow of migrants to their territories in the country with higher socio-economic development. They are also trying to attract from other regions for a number of productive forces, the lack of which does not allow any radically change the dynamics of socio-economic and demographic development.

  1. Trends vital in Kazakhstan

2.1 Status of the Population of Kazakhstan

According to the national census, held on 14 October 2010, the resident population of the Republic of Kazakhstan amounted to 142.9 mln. People. Compared with the 2002 population census, the population decreased by 2.3 million people, including in urban areas -. 1.1 million people in rural areas -. 1.2 million people.. The ratio of residents and rural residents was in 2010 74% and 26%, respectively.

Kazakhstan ranked eighth in the world in terms of population, after China (1.335 billion. People). India (1.21 billion. People). US (309 million. People). Indonesia (238 mln. People). Brazil (191 million. People). Pakistan (165 mln. People) and Bangladesh (147 million. People).

The average number of children born has decreased per 1000 women from 1513 in 2002 to 1469 in 2010. In urban areas, the figure was 1328 children (2002 – 1350). and in rural areas – 1876 (2002 – 1993). As part of the household. both in the city and in the village, still dominated by households with one child.

For the duration of the life of the Republic of Kazakhstan, unfortunately, not even in the top one hundred countries in the world, ranking 102 th. There is a very low life expectancy for men whose death rate from cardiovascular disease has increased over the last 10 years by 1.5 times, from murder – in 2 times, from suicide – in 2 times, from alcohol poisoning – 3 times, and 30 thousand . people. killed on Russian roads, and so on. d. Therefore, the average life expectancy for men is less than 60 years. Women in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) live on average 13 years longer than men (in the whole world – for 4 years).

2.2 Analysis of reproduction ratios

Reproduction rate – figures that give a generalized quantitative assessment of the intensity of the process of replacement of generations. This is calculated, as a rule, separately for women and men. But for men, in practice, it is not applied due to lack of data on the age of fertility of men.

Use of reproductive factors – to give an idea of ​​the growth of the population, regardless of its age structure, changing under the influence of various factors.

The simplest of the reproduction rate is the index of vitality, substitution figures Nibbsa and Thompson, but they are complex calculations. Therefore, due to the relative simplicity of calculation are mainly used:

1) Gross reproduction rate;

2) the net reproduction rate.

These figures are calculated on the female (male) reproductive period.

The reproductive period (synonym – generative, not recommended term childbearing and fertility) – the period of the woman, in which it is able to bear children. He defined the boundaries of conventional 1549 years. From the proportion of women in the reproductive period depends on the total number of births and total fertility rate: the higher the percentage – the higher the total number of births and total fertility rate.

The current long-term downward trend in the number of population of Kazakhstan restricts the opportunities for development and ensuring national security. In order to consolidate the efforts of the federal bodies of state power, bodies of state power of subjects of Federation and local self-government of municipalities Presidential Decree in October 2007 approved the concept of demographic policy of Kazakhstan for the period up to 2025, the objectives of which are [4; 15]:

1) population stabilization by 2015 at the level of 142 – 143 million people and creating conditions for its growth in 2025 to 145 million people.;.

2) improving the quality of life and increase its expectancy by 2015 to 70 years by 2025 – up to 75 years.

Achieving the above goals largely depends on the successful resolution of a wide range of tasks, including the provision of sustainable economic welfare development and population growth, poverty reduction and the decrease of differentiation of income, intensive reproduction of human capital and the creation of an effective social infrastructure (health, education, social protection ), a market of affordable housing, a flexible labor market, improvement of sanitary and epidemiological situation.

In the register of demographic problems it is necessary to allocate two more important: reducing mortality and increasing its fertility. Since 2006, great attention is paid to increasing the birth rate at the federal level – birth certificates, maternal (family) capital, etc. This is good, but the impact will be only 20 years later, that is, no earlier than 2026, and the country lacks workers today. Therefore, it is necessary to save the life of 20 – 40 year olds. The priority in the demographic policy should be given to reduce the mortality of working age by providing constitutional rights to safe working conditions and a healthy environment.

The working population of the country is subjected to a double negative environmental impact: the impact of harmful factors and toxic substances in the workplace, and in places of residence. The incidence increases the likelihood of development of professional pathologies. A high percentage of environmentally imperfect technologies in industry, energy, transport and agriculture. It’s about the ecosystem of production, which is largely determined by the state of working conditions and safety in the workplace.

In countries, mainly to complete the transition to the modern type of reproduction, usually dominated regimes that ensure easy or close to it the reproduction of the population with disabilities in the enlarged side and towards the narrowed.

Although the appearance of the net value of the coefficient of <l do not mean the beginning of an immediate reduction in the population, and this reduction was observed rare occurrence modes narrowed reproduction characteristics is regarded as a sign of potential depopulation. Therefore, in many economically developed countries held a demographic policy aimed primarily at increasing the birth rate to a level that ensures a simple or slightly expanded reproduction of the population.

Social management of reproduction is to limit the role of chance and reducing the uncertainty in the demographic processes.

One of the main manifestations of the effectiveness of social management of the reproduction of population – economy of reproduction modes, ie, the ratio of demographics, “cost” and “results”… If we assess the costs of gross-factor value, and the results -.. The value of the net rate, the ratio of the first to the second, ie, the number of girls, which on average have to have a woman to provide the parent generation of simple replacement can be considered as a measure of reproductive efficiency. This efficiency is higher, the closer the value of simple reproduction unit.

2.3 The demographic transition in the Republic of Kazakhstan as part of Vital

We give a description of the first demographic transition in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The decline in fertility in the Republic of Kazakhstan started from a higher level and later than in most developed countries. The delay from the European countries on average 30-40 years, and for nearly a century from France.

Around the mid-1890s, when it was observed an increase in the rate of annual population growth of 1% per year to 1.8% -1.9%. However, the half-century lag was offset by a high rate of flow processes. And by the year 1960, ie, less than 100 years later, the population shift to most Russian territory has been completed, as well as in Europe.

The demographic transition originated in central and north-western Kazakhstan, especially in its capital, and the old-industrial areas. It then spread to other areas. Nevertheless, the national education as a part of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as well as its Old Believer territory of the Russian North, the Volga and Ural noticeably lagged.

The initial impetus for the reduction of fertility has served as a great “emancipation” and agrarian reform in the Republic of Kazakhstan, initiated by the order “from above” in 1861. The fall in fertility came with a record-breaking pace for Europe – around 70 years Kazakhstan has overcome the lag in completing the overall transition to a low birth rate (2 children per woman), along with other developed countries – to the middle of the 1960s. The first-generation post-transitional fertility – a woman born in the second half of the 1920s and 1930s)..

As a criterion for completion of the transition process, there are three criteria in relation to the quantitative characteristics of birth: a) the proximity indicators of total fertility in actual and contingent generations; b) the proximity indicators of total fertility in the “parent” and “child” generations; c) the achievement of women slaboassimetrichnogo statistical distribution of the number of children born to the age of 50 years with the fashion of 2 children per woman.

The decline in fertility actual generation in Kazakhstan is almost all over the transition was monotonous. For a violation of this monotony can be found only in the cohorts 1890-1895 gg. birth. On the contrary, the birth rate for conventional generation (traditional total fertility rate) showed high volatility against the general trend to decrease. Fluctuations of indicators for conventional generation caused by the specific features of certain calendar years: the catastrophic changes in the socio-economic environment and / or state interference in the demographic sphere, reflect, first of all, a strong shift in the calendar of births. Slump and subsequent no less harsh compensatory rises conjuncture indicators well describe the instantaneous rate of change in the formation of families, but disguise the general trend of the evolution of fertility. In the Republic of Kazakhstan during the 20th century can count four cases of deviation from the total fertility rate trend: three under the influence of catastrophic circumstances and one as a result of family policy.

The transition to a low birth rate in the Republic of Kazakhstan, in our opinion, was largely accelerated by the continuous chain of social upheavals that accompanied the rapid modernization of society. It’s not so much the fact that during the crisis, falling living standards, but in the fact that in these periods was acquired massive experience of the individual birth control. Reproductive behavior of partners is constantly adapted to the changing reality. The need for frequent changes in the calendar of births and marriages, brings to life the specific instrumental techniques and methods of birth control. Unfortunately, in the Republic of Kazakhstan, this resulted in mass distribution abortnoy practice. Act 1936, which prohibits abortion on the woman’s request, was in many respects naive attempt of the totalitarian state to reverse the downward trend in fertility, “tweak” the demographic situation after the crisis caused by “collectivisation”. Its effect in improving the tactical indicators (number of births, the total fertility rate) in 1937, we estimate no more than 8%. In subsequent years, the effect of the prohibition of course, was even lower. In terms of total fertility real generational role of this factor probably zero, reducible to progress in the calendar of births in some women, a new circumstance caught off guard.

Today, Kazakhstan is at the same stage of demographic development, as the most developed countries, and the basic model is narrowed reproduction of the population, against the backdrop of his strong aging. The growth of population of the country is possible only due to migration.

Next, consider the second demographic transition. Stabilization processes of reproduction does not mean preserving the established model. Today, many scientists speak about the beginning of the second demographic transition, which is clearly indicated in the most developed countries, and which types of signs and Kazakhstan. The second demographic transition is associated with fundamental changes in the life cycle of generations, people change the value system, their ideas about the most appropriate age for marriage and family formation.

For it becomes important not only quantitative growth of population and the ratio between births and deaths, as a conscious, determined at the level of the family or person related to the birth of children and their own health, fundamentally different demographic behavior.


the sexual revolution, understood as the development of contraception, women can acquire, along with men, sexual freedom, and as a consequence of the normal responsibilities of a family and the birth of the child;

an overall reduction in the number of registered marriages; consideration of civil marriage, or other forms of cohabitation as an alternative to a full registered marriages; marriage of the terminal value is increasingly becoming a tool;

widespread parent families in which the child lives with one parent. In Scandinavia, these families make up 40% of all families in the Republic of Kazakhstan – 28%;

move aside the timing of marriage and the birth of the first child 2-4 years (from 20-24 years to 25-29 years), which significantly reduces the probability of the birth of the 2nd and 3rd child; the extension of the children’s birth to the physiological limits;

reduction of the contribution to the total fertility early ages (15-17 years) and the increase in the proportion of fertility in older age, after 30 years;

significant adjustability birth: the timing of the birth to the desired sex of the child; elimination of abortive behavior as a means of birth control; the decline of fertility in young ages;

the perception of the child as an absolute value; today in the developed world 2/3 children are welcome.

second epidemiological revolution that puts a barrier, not only infectious diseases, but also a number of diseases, until recently considered incurable – cardiovascular, cancer, etc.

Since the mid-1980s have seen a dramatic increase in illegitimate births, which may indicate an increase in the number of unregistered marriages.

Since that time, a decline in the number of abortions in the age of 15-49 years, especially at younger ages.

Since 1991, the reduction in the number of births at a young age – 15-19 years, which clearly indicates the formation of a new age structure of fertility.

Reducing the number of families who want to have two or more children. In fact, the situation with the birth of her second child returned to the state in 1970 This does not mean that it affects the current economic crisis. Rather, it is the result of the spread of “Western” model of demographic behavior and a consequence of the growth of women’s career aspirations.

The second demographic transition poses researchers question, is it possible to ensure conditions at least for the simple reproduction of the population? What will the world where there is a significant difference of demographic potentials? Even today the population of economically developed countries has declined by about half.

Another major problem is the aging of the population. Today, the life expectancy of people beyond retirement age is comparable to the period of their active work, and pensioners themselves, in a narrowed reproduction, becoming one of the most numerous groups. This makes the problem of pension provision a major “headache” of the economy. This is one of the challenges of demography development of modern society.

What is the demographic future promises forecast revision in 2004 of our country? Good enough, although the authors of the forecast is somewhat more optimistic about the prospects of demographic of our country in comparison with the revisions of 2000 and 2002. If the forecast in 1998 predicted that the population of our country in 2050 will be reduced to 121,300,000. Man, projections 2000 and 2002. -. To 104.3 million people, the latest forecast increases our target population to 111.8 million people (throughout the Middle versions).. With what linked these strange jump target number of population of Kazakhstan from one revision to the next? Is the UN experts have caught some new trend, talking about what our country is beginning to get out of the pit depopulation. Joy, however, is nothing, because we are dealing here with a purely statistical artifact.

Firstly, WPP-2004 based on the greater in comparison with the initial revision number 2002 g. RK population. It is known that the 2002 census showed a population of nearly 2 million. People more than it came out of the calculations according to the equation demographic balance. Secondly, WPP-2004 takes into account the fact that a rise in births since 2000. This rapid growth and has already ended births authors somehow spread to the entire forecast period, which explains the increase in the target population in the revision of 2004 compared with the previous two.

The top version, which applied to the Republic of Kazakhstan should be recognized as a fantastic, it gives strength to 134.5 million people, the bottom -. To 92.4 million people and the option of a permanent birth -. 98.2 million people.. The last two options should be considered, and the closest to what is actually in the middle of the century, and the most realistic option is exactly the bottom, because it implies a decrease in the birth rate in the period up to 2015-2020, with the current 1.33 to 1.01 and only then it is some growth to 1.35 (the predicted dynamics of the average life expectancy in all variants of the newborn is the same). But this, as mentioned above, “the most realistic option,” yet, in our opinion, is fairly far from reality, since it involves no reasoned spontaneous increase in the birth rate. The actual reduction in the number of population of Kazakhstan will even bólshim than projected in the lower version.

All the options WPP-2004 suggest a decrease by 2050 the number of population of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and reduce the spread of estimates is extremely large: from 8.7 to 50.8 million people.. In addition, all variants of the forecast include reducing the average annual values ​​of population decline throughout the forecast period, or in the greater part of it.

Fig.2. Projected population dynamics of Kazakhstan according to the UN population projections, 2005-2050. WPP-2004, all the options (million)

According to the medium variant of the forecast expected the following average values ​​reduce the size (in thousands): 2005-2010. – 635; for the 2015-2020 biennium. – 719; for the 2025-2030 biennium. – 781; for the 2035-2040 biennium. – To 669 and 2045-2050. – Also at 669 000 people. On top option – by 356; 296; 368; 6 and 50 thousand people. According to an embodiment of the lower – to 913, respectively; 1 157; 1 154; 1168 and to 1 203 thousand. At the same time, as you may guess, the pace of reduction in the number of our population will increase across all forecast variants, except for the top (Figure 2). Particularly sharply (almost twice) will increase the pace of depopulation of the lower variant and variant constant fertility. But in reality, we should expect even more rapid depopulation because all versions of the UN projections are based on the assumptions about the growth of the birth or, at least, of maintaining it at the same level.

Forecasts of the UN experts, in general, coincide with the estimates of demographic prospects, which provide domestic demographers. The above data are placed in the plug target number of population of Kazakhstan, which has already become, as it were commonplace demographic prognostics. In this sense we can speak of “convergence” forecasts, carried out by different authors. However, most of them ignored the results of sociological and demographic research on the continuing decrease in reproductive attitudes, and that is the main reason for inadequate RK population estimates for mid-century.

2.4 Problems reduce reproduction in Kazakhstan

Among the most important problems of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the demographic development processes beginning of the XXI century. should highlight the following: the problem of depopulation; population aging; reduction in life expectancy; the degradation of the gene pool of the nation; the problem of preserving the family institution; strengthening of inter-ethnic tensions; lack of activity of the state migration policy; uneven distribution of population within the country; aggravation of the territorial and socio-economic problems in urban and rural areas; the problem of employment, the availability of unemployment; the absence of solid evidence-based population policies, necessary for the development of the country.

Statistics show that the number of population of Kazakhstan reduced since 1992. This is against a background of growth of the world population. There was a danger of the extinction of the Russian ethnos. The peculiarity of the Russian depopulation that against the background of low birth rate in the country in recent years, increasing mortality.

From the fall of the causes of fertility are the following:

– Economic problems (lack of housing conditions, low wages, etc…);

– A low level of health of reproductive age;

– The high prevalence of abortions;

– Mass distribution of small families or childlessness.

Among the main reasons for the sharp and growing mortality in Kazakhstan following should be noted: the aging of the population as a result of unfavorable living conditions: a sharp drop in living standards, deterioration of food, rising prices for medicines and services to medical institutions; insufficient level of development of a network of high-quality and public health institutions; alcoholism, drug addiction, accidents, industrial injuries; the presence of alarming crime situation; increased emotional stress, frequent stressful situations, low mobility and widespread forms of passive recreation, fatigue and as a result, the trend towards an increased incidence of premature old age; low culture of recreation, leisure; the negative impact of changes in environmental conditions.

In Kazakhstan, high rates of maternal mortality due to complications of pregnancy, childbirth and the postpartum period (it is 5-10 times higher in our country than in the developed countries of Western Europe and 2-4 times higher than in the developed world) and infant mortality .

Due to less biological resistance men their mortality is much higher than females. Men especially high mortality from unnatural causes. Consistently high levels of deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases, especially tuberculosis. Yeshe is one reason for the high level of growth and death rate of men of working age – alcoholism and occupational injuries as a consequence of alcohol poisoning and addiction. By international standards the population is considered old if the proportion of the population aged 65 years and older than 7%. In the Republic of Kazakhstan in this age group is about 14% of the population.

Expectancy at birth, life expectancy in the Republic of Kazakhstan began to decline around 1992. This is due to increased mortality, especially in the working age, and shows the overall socio-economic disadvantage in the country. The requirements of the market economy are forced to intensify the pace of life of people, their economic-economic and educational activities. Sharply increased load, but do not create a public system of recovery of physical strength and emotional balance. It is becoming less reliable mental health of the nation, have become more frequent psychoses social nature. Continue to change for the worse) ‘environment. This contributes to the deterioration of the nation’s health.

Increased physical and emotional stress, combined with the deterioration of food contribute to a drop in children’s health. 40% more than in the past, began to die young – at age 15 – 19 years. Very high and increasing proportion of children with diseases of the nervous system, 40% of children suffer from chronic illnesses, half has various developmental disorders.

There has been uneven population settlement on the territory of Kazakhstan. The density of the population of Kazakhstan is sharply reduced from west to east and from south to north. More densely populated areas along the transport communications, river valleys. The number and proportion of the rural population in Kazakhstan tends to decrease. Now the number of the rural population is 27% of the total population of the country. The practice of cottage building contributes to social tension in rural areas, particularly in peri-urban areas of major cities, highlighting the growth of social stratification in society and increasing environmental concerns.

The unemployment rate in Kazakhstan is quite high and this is a very acute problem. If we assume further growth of unemployment in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the social consequences could be disastrous. Studies in the US have shown that an increase in the unemployment rate by 1%, if it then does not decrease over the next five years, gives the following results: the growth of the mentally ill – by 3%, imprisonment – by 4%, murder – 6 %, deaths from alcohol – 2% increase in total mortality rate – 2%. Soviet scientists found that the increase in unemployment and tensions in the labor market in the city of 1% causes an increase in crime at least 7 – 8%.

2.5 RC Demographic Policy

A new stage of demographic policy began with the development of the Concept of demographic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period up to 2015.

In the area of ​​health promotion and increasing the life expectancy of the population identified the following priorities

– Strengthening the health of children and adolescents, in particular by improving measures aimed at preventing injuries and poisoning, to combat smoking, alcoholism and drug addiction, as well as through the development of physical culture and sports and leisure activities;

– Improving reproductive health by improving preventive and therapeutic and diagnostic services;

– Improved health of working-age population in the first place due to the prevention of injury and poisoning, as well as due to early detection and adequate treatment of cardiovascular diseases, tumors and infectious diseases;

– The preservation of the health of older people, for whom the most important prevention of cardiovascular diseases, cancer, endocrine disorders and infectious.


To summarize the work. At the beginning of the third millennium, the world community has come to the need to rethink the ways of social development. As rightly considered domestic researchers, prevail before the concept of economic growth, an approach to the analysis of material production from a purely economic point of view, it was applicable until the natural resources seemed inexhaustible due to the limited exposure of human industrial activity.

Currently, however, society comes to realize that the economic activity is only part of universal human activity and economic development is best addressed within the broader concept of social development. Not by chance at the end of XX century increasingly important steel betray the study of problems of demography; food supply the world’s population; resources and to fill them; security and peace; environmental protection and others. Common to all global problems is their universal character, since they are the product of modern civilization.

It produced enough research to confidently be called the main causes of the demographic crisis.

The first is a catastrophic, and constantly continuing decline in fertility caused by the long-term cultural factors. This means that the decline in fertility will continue in the future, and nothing but artificial intervention, will not be able to stop him. The situation is similar to birth and in other countries.

Another critical factor influencing the demographic situation in the Republic of Kazakhstan is – mortality. The main reason for the high mortality rate is a poor spiritual and psychological state of the society, due to the general crisis in our country. Mortality, unlike birth, should be reduced in the near future, and will be reduced in parallel with the improvement of economic indicators and inform others in our country.

From the above it can be concluded that the mortality plays in the demographic crisis, significantly lower than the birth rate, the role. Therefore, the main task of scientists all over the world today is the development of effective measures to increase the birth rate. Develop measures to increase the birth rate – the hardest, but the primary task of all social and economic sciences.

It will be important to cover up that massive beard little children and falling birth rates observed around the world, and their causes throughout the world are the same.

Although the Company is a self-regulating system, it is clear that self-regulation mechanism for some reason, almost does not work in relation to the population, not preventing either from overcrowding or from becoming extinct. Therefore, save Russia, and the world can only artificial measures of depopulation. But if measures to combat overpopulation quite simple and has long been used in different countries, with measures to combat the extinction of the population situation is the opposite. Ways to increase the birth rate does not exist, not only in our country but also abroad.

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Analysis of natural migration of the population.

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